Japanese govt eyes up to 30% future ratio of N-power

The Japanese government is likely to set nuclear power contributions to the nation's energy supply in 2030 at a maximum of 30 per cent under a new basic plan on energy, according to sources.It will be a significant drop from the figure set under the current energy plan, which calls for nuclear power to account for a majority of the nation's total energy.Particularly since the outbreak of the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, public attention has been directed at the government's new basic plan as it will set the tone of national energy policy.The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry's research committee for natural resources and energy intends to draw up several scenarios on the ratios of energy sources by the end of April and select one this summer, the sources said.The panel on Monday came up with four plans, each of which proposes different ratios of nuclear power in 2030--0 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent and 30 per cent. The panel will compile a formal proposal after incorporating variables such as electricity demand and possible effects of energy conservation.

According to the sources, only one panel member called for nuclear power to account for about 30 per cent of the nation's total power supply, the same level as before the Fukushima nuclear crisis. Nine panel members were in favor of either about 25 per cent or about 20 per cent, while seven pushed for the ratio to be 0 per cent, supporting the idea that the nation will eventually abandon nuclear power.The nation is expected to rely more on renewable energy sources and thermal power if it reduces its dependence on nuclear power.At the meeting, members agreed it would be difficult for the nation to raise nuclear power's share to 50 per cent of the total energy supply.

The sources said many ministry officials view 20 per cent to 25 per cent as realistic. The panel is therefore likely to coordinate opinions around those figures, they added.However, panel members remain deeply divided, the sources said. They will likely face difficulties reaching an agreement.Renewable energy sources, which many hope will make up for the decrease in nuclear power, still have technical uncertainty and costs are also at issue.Higher fuel costs for thermal power generation--which has increased since the Great East Japan Earthquake--are likely to raise electricity rates. Increased thermal power generation will also raise carbon dioxide emissions.Keeping such issues in mind, the government needs to consider public opinion to choose the best plan for the nation's energy policy.
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